![]() Biden has also devoted many of his relatively few personal campaign appearances to those states, usually appearing before working-class audiences. ![]() According to CNN ad tracking, he’s spent more on television advertising in Pennsylvania than in any other state except Florida, which is much larger he is outspending Trump on television by about 2-to-1 or more in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin alike. “The overperformance of non-college White and rural is nothing to laugh at,” said one high-level Democratic strategist who’s monitoring the data.ĬNN Poll of Polls averages show Biden advantage in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsinīut unlike Clinton, who slighted Michigan and Wisconsin in campaign visits and advertising, Biden has remained laser-focused on these three states. Privately, some Democratic operatives who are closely watching the early voting totals say they see worrisome signs that once again the share of non-college and rural Whites who are participating is larger than expected, even as turnout is slightly disappointing among voters of color and young people. “My sense of what I see particularly in rural parts of the state and smaller cities is that the Trump vote is more energized now than it was four years ago,” says Mark Graul, a Wisconsin-based Republican strategist who ran George W. Why the Southeast is up for grabs in the 2020 election Gretchen Whitmer during the coronavirus pandemic have weakened his position, few in either party rule out the possibility of Trump surprising again in the Rust Belt, even if polls are more favorable for Biden now than Clinton then. Apart from Michigan, where Trump’s relentless attacks on Democratic Gov. Trump stunned Democrats in 2016 when he captured Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, despite trailing in the polls then too, behind an unexpected surge of turnout from his core group of non-college-educated Whites, especially those in small-town and rural communities. … You have an impossible Electoral College advantage with the states he’s ahead of in the Rust Belt.” Unless Trump can reverse Biden’s advantages in the key Rust Belt battlegrounds, Greenberg argues, the former vice president “has locked up the presidency. “He’s settled in at a level that makes him formidable in terms of creating an Electoral College bloc that includes for sure Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, but also Minnesota, while competing readily for Ohio and Iowa,” says veteran Democratic pollster Stanley B. If Biden holds all of the 20 states Clinton won in 2016 and regains Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he will win – whether or not he captures any of his targets across the Sun Belt, or for that matter, Ohio or Iowa.īuild your own road to 270 electoral votes with CNN’s interactive map With remarkable consistency across these states, polls show Biden benefiting from similar dynamics, as he attracts a solid majority of around 55% or more of college-educated White voters a preponderant majority of around four-fifths of African Americans and about two-fifths of Whites without college degrees, a number, that while modest, represents a clear improvement over Hillary Clinton’s anemic showing with them in 2016. Now, a wide array of public polls consistently shows Biden leading in all three states, defending Minnesota (which Trump has targeted) and running almost step for step with the President in Ohio and Iowa, two Rust Belt states Trump won more easily last time. How 2020 may reconfigure politics in the Southwest
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